The Mess with Texas

In speaking to some fellow, politically-observant colleagues of mine lately, the 2012 U.S. Senate race in Texas has curiously piqued our interest. This is the race where incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison is likely to face at least one significant Tea Party challenger in a GOP primary. This, despite Hutchison boasting rather strong approval ratings with the state's electorate as a whole - she's enormously popular with Independents and unusually popular (for a Republican) with Democrats.

A new poll basically confirms this assertion.

This poll, conducted by Blem & Weprin for a series of Texas newspapers, finds Hutchison with a solid 46/26 approval/disapproval rating, meaning a net 20 in approval - very nice, especially amid an environment that is decidedly anti-incumbent. Where Hutchison faces a ghastly road block, however, is in her approval among registered Republicans. While 56 percent of them approve of her job performance, that's hardly a ringing endorsement - looking at the glass half empty, that means 44 percent of her own party either doesn't approve or doesn't care.

It's data like this which must frustrate Hutchison something awful. After all, should she win her party's nomination, she'll steamroll through the general election with grand ease. The state's Democratic bench is rather anemic - the best of the lot being fmr. State Comptroller John Sharp and fmr. Rep. Chet Edwards - and even the best of the best wouldn't come close to ousting Hutchison.

Alas, Hutchison has a real problem on her hands, and that problem is the Tea Party.

Hutchison's most viable path to primary victory would surely be garnering multiple right-wing challengers, in the hopes that perhaps they bloody one another up to the point where their unfavorables are just as high as hers'. Keep in mind, however, Texas holds a primary run-off system, meaning should no candidate break the 50 percent mark, a one-on-one run-off between the plurality victor and runner-up will take shape. Presuming Hutchison did advance, she would somehow need to drawn-in the losing Tea Party candidates' supporters, and the odds of that are probably slim to none. So, Hutchison probably needs 50 percent right from the starting gate, and that's gonna be tough as nails.

What's especially heartbreaking for Hutchison is that even some of the rank-and-file seem wary of her re-election bid.

While the likes of Dick Cheney and George H.W. Bush have been consistently behind Hutchison at every step, Newt Gingrich and Jim DeMint have already endorsed Michael Williams, the state's Railroad Commissioner, in his likely primary challenge to Hutchison. Williams is a staunch conservative with Mike Huckabee-style charisma. He's also African-American, and would be the first black Republican U.S. Senator since Edward Brooke. He's probably the candidate to beat here.

But, here's a fun scenario to mull over - what if Hutchison does eek-out a primary victory, but the Tea Party refuses the let the war end there, instead launching a right-wing third-party challenge in the general? Could the Democrat win with a plurality of the vote? You might think so, until you realize Hutchison is atypically popular with Democrats and would probably take 20 percent of them. So, in a case like that, Hutchison probably claims victory.

Alas, I think all political junkies should prepare for the likelihood of a Sen. Michael Williams.

(Photo courtesy of Chris Leonard.)